Thursday, April 9, 2020

Death Experts

My state's death prediction for August 1st went from 1766 10 days ago to over 2000 this past weekend to 1094 today.  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/maryland

Which is good, but...  Faith in expertise takes a hit.  Remember this when they throw models and predictions about (the more complicated subject of) global climate at you that extends four decades into the future instead of four months.

It's been a long while since experts really covered themselves in glory.  The moon landings, maybe?  Also the zenith of US Gummint competency. 
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1 comment:

  1. Zendo DebApril 9, 2020 at 9:53 PM

    Models are based on experience. Like driving while looking in the rearview mirror. Sort of.

    The models about the flu are pretty good. The models of this disease not so much, but then we've been modeling the flu for a 100 years or so.

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