Victim Selection

It's common knowledge.  "Be alert so when criminals see you they see you are on the ball and they choose an easier victim"

I've been reading that reddit thread where people tell stories about times they killed another person.  Often in self defense.

The problem?  Besides some other unlucky innocent gets the short straw?  Criminals are often, maybe mostly, stupid.  Crime MAKES you stupid.

And they will pick the awake gun nut's house when he is at home.  That's not the only example!  Crime makes you stupid.  You could have a AR10 pointed at the front door and they'll still think it a good idea to bust it down and take you on.

Go over the bad guy's thought process.  He thinks he picked the best victim.  Lots of loot, easy to kick over, maybe no homeowner even HOME.  There was no car in the driveway, for example. Probably a short commute for the crook, as most of these are in self described sketchy neighborhoods.

But then the plan goes bad.  The guy is home and his car is in the shop.  He's called downstairs, "I have called the cops and I have a gun!"

There are several of these!  More than one story.  

When given the chance to bug out, full tilt, probably scot free, or.... to charge up a dark stairwell and take on a homeowner on his own turf and hope he is bluffing about the gun...  Some crooks choose the latter.  And this is a thread about homicides so they paid for their stupidity with a quickness.

Crime makes you stupid.  Bad guys aren't rational.  They don't think like you do.  Their sense of future consequences aren't like yours even for the ones that WOULD have fled at the first sign of homeowner.  Include these criteria in your mental planning and scenarios.