Thursday, November 13, 2014

Yeah, about this

This is such an odd graph.

Gallup asks if you have a gun in your home.  Lots of people.  And do statistical analysis and junk.  So, it should be kind stead.  But LOOK at that graph.



Between '94 and 1999, did 17% of Americans ditch the gun or guns they owned?

Yeah, yeah, I know, people lie to pollsters,  But THAT much?  Do you think it is actually north of 50 today?

Miguel was way ahead of me with the same questions.   Millions of guns 'disappeared'.  Sure folks get reticent about sharing such information with a stranger on the phone, but that many?  The next year they fess up, the year after that they clam up...  Why?  I think the polling people are just being incompetent.  They are contacting about a thousand people each time, randomly, adjusting to keep the sampling regular....  rehabs they change their adjustment procedures every year.  That would be stupid, but they are a large old organization and could be getting complacent in their methods.  A common pitfall.

I have no idea how to find out the hows and whys of the way they are screwing up the methodology so bad.



6 comments:

joethefatman said...

I would and have straight up lied when asked. It is known that I supposedly have a gun. Supposedly. But I ain't telling that to anyone over the phone.

New Jovian Thunderbolt said...

Yeah, folks lie. I would. But they don't lie one year, say yeah the next, then lie again...

Old NFO said...

Anybody with any sense IS refusing to answer that one...

joethefatman said...

@ NJT

Probably correct for most.

abnormalist said...

so... what could have happened in 1994 to get people to not trust honest answers to a phone poll regarding do you have guns in your house... Hmm, 1994 AWB? Ya think?

1993 "Sure yeah we have guns in our house, mostly hunting, I guess defense, sure why not"
1994 "Nope, no guns here buh bye"

for anyone involved in firearms at the time, it was kinda polarizing moment

New Jovian Thunderbolt said...

Well, yeah, Brady Bill is obvious for that biggest drop in 'yes' answers. But the fluctuations after seem too sudden to be accounted for, up down, up down.