This data model

That I mentioned before seems to going further and further from on-the-ground numbers.  https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It's not jibing with New York, for example.

The @IHME_UW model vs reality for New York State, April 5. The model is less accurate than ever. 69K beds projected, 16.5K actually needed; 12,346 ICU beds projected, 4376 needed. Even better (tho not for the model), overall bed count rose less than 600 statewide - less than 4%. pic.twitter.com/TfjtOQNUtq

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 5, 2020

And that's a good thing, as that model is more pessimistic. 

It means Maryland, which now has two dozen deaths, might not get to the projected 1,766 in August, too.  Let's hope.