Monday, August 17, 2009


Frank James says:

“Those who know me understand I find the whole popular concept of 'survivalism' as nothing less than a cruel joke, if not utter stupidity. It isn't even valid enough to be considered 'unorganized stupidity' in my opinion”

I think Farmer Frank is close to right. It’s one thing to fantasize about a total world wide collapse for whatever reason, but if it really came to pass even the most prepared would be pretty much fooked.

I’m talking level 4 Zombie outbreak size disaster. 100,000% inflation in the US. EMP blast over the US and Europe. Nuclear war with 1000 warheads. Caldera Volcano in Yellowstone that blots out the sun and covers the northern hemisphere in ash. An asteroid strike like Jupiter takes in the face with regularity. Ebola spread by respiratory droplets. That sort of thing. A disaster that makes EVERYWERE like New Orleans the day after Katrina and lasts a lifetime or more. If a disaster of that nature happens, even Galt’s Gulch will have very hard times. Die offs approaching 90%. A dark age throwback to the medieval era.

So it’s pointless to prepare? No, of course not. It’s pointless to think you can prepare for a level 4 zombie outbreak. You CAN prepare for lesser situations. A day after Katrina disaster that lasts a year or so. Prepare for that. A disaster of that magnitude is naturally more likely, and much easier to prepare for. It would be no picnic, and you’d need to be lucky to make it through unscathed, but it is doable vis nigh-impossible. (and luck, by nature, is out of your control; it might be hedged a bit by the most prepared, but there is still a lot of chance involved.) The better you prepare the more comfy you will be for the duration.

If a big nationwide disaster caused mass migration out of many cities then there is going to be a lot of misery and death. Even if things can return to normal in a years time. With that sort of population flux, nowhere is safe. Not even in your remote retreat. Not even in your semi-remote sizable community where the whole of a normally contrarian population bands together. You’ll still have to be lucky. Take Farmer Frank as an example in the above article. Say his farm isn’t between 2 major urban centers, but is more remote and defensible. Also say he diversified from just corn and soybeans (assuming he is just a corn and soybean farmer) to add some hobby cows and pigs and a chicken coop, a few draft horses. He is a professional, and tends to that without issue, easily feeding his family and even all 25 of his blog followers. But it wouldn’t take many bad actors coming to his farm to ruin it all. And a bad actor can be a relatively small group of desperate hungry people that were otherwise law abiding before the event. And a group like that would find him, eventually, it's only a matter of time. A remote farm may luck out in a years time, but a generation's time?

So, we all must hope that a big cities-emptier never happens.

So, “Go-Mormon.” Members of the Church of Jesus Christ and Latter Day Saints have always been preparers, storing food and supplies to last a year. If we were 300 million Mormons we’d shrug off a year long disruption, comparatively. But you don’t have to be Mormon to be as prepared as they.

Am I that prepared? No. I’d be getting pretty lean in 3 months, having eaten all the canned goods and such. So that is my vulnerability. I’m working on correcting it over time.

Here is a more sober, less panicky, look at how not to die.

1 comment:

Paladin said...

You're right... prepping can prove useful in a lot of situations besides an "all out" survival situation. I use my skills and equipment every week, for one thing or another.

It's awful to contemplate.. but in a total breakdown situation I think the key to survival will be having the skills and materials to keep yourself (and your loved ones) alive long enough to survive the enormous initial die off that would undoubtedly occur during the first year. There would be waves of these die offs - the first within weeks, the next within months - and so on.

In any situation where mass, unstructured evacs occur... if you don't get as far away as possible and have the ability to keep your head down until the mass migrations are over - you're screwed. The horde will devour pretty much anything in its path.

After that point, the key to survival will change to the survivors banding together into small groups for protection and sharing of skills/labor.

That's just my opinion, dark as it is... I Hope it never comes to pass.