Friday, December 16, 2011

Ammo capacity.

Another thing about the 9mm argument redux making the rounds.  "You want that ammo capacity a 9mm semi gives you!"

Why? 

To predict the future we only have example from the past that may repeat themselves in a similar way in our presence and may call for us to defend ourselves with a firearm.

Virginia Tech recent shooting
Luby's
VT a few years back
Flash Mob robberies (did these really happen the way they were reported?)
Bombay terrists

Ok, what are the attributes of these events?  Well in some, it is a single, semi-determined shooter with a group of targets they are attempting to murder.  Low capacity pistols and good shooting and a 5 shot snubbie would have been all you'd need in a Luby or VT situation.  So obviously the "you want that ammo capacity!  18+1 and 2 reload mags are a START!" argument doesn't apply there. 

Another is a ambush.  Even the most alert and trained person can be bushwhacked.  Like that officer in VT the other week.  It can happen.  And it would suck if it happened to you.  Again, if you had a .22 derringer or a Thompson sub machine gun with 4 extra drums with you, it isn't going to matter.  Ammo cap is irrelevent in that scenario, too.

The others is group of assailants, going after a single good target or a group of targets.  It doesn't really matter which if you fall inside the Venn circle as 'target' (like a flash mob) and are alone or are one of very many (like in Mumbai)

I'm not a cop.  I'm not an infantryman.  Chances are if you are CCWing you are not either.  There is no duty to 'get' the bad guy, save the day, rescue the kitten, put out the fire in the orphanage, and take on evil single handedly.  While it is often very nice when such a heroic circumstance occurs that is not your responsibility.  You carry CCW for defense, not offense.  Your pistol is for getting your butt out of a jam that has been initiated by someone else.  Regroup.  Get a rifle if the situation warrants going on offense.  But offense is also beyond the scope of this post.

The hypothetical circumstance a high capacity magazine address is a group of armed or unarmed assailant targetting you alone or you and a bunch of other people, but you are the only one that thought to tote a pistol. 

Let's stipulate first, right off, if a group of armed assailants wants you dead your future outlook is not so good.  Your chances aren't GREAT with a group of unarmed assailants either, but obviously better. 

So what do you have when going against a group?  The group might not be expecting you to be armed.  The introduction of ANY firearm, regardless of capacity, might be the only edge you need.  You'd alter THEIR decision making process in many circumstances.  In that case a capacity of "3" may be all the bullets you need.  Only "1" as long as the bad guys don't know that that is all you have.  20 unarmed assailants and one of them takes 2 rounds from your 5 shot snubbie?  You can only shoot about 3 more, or so at that point.  16 assailants will be unscathed!  You're doomed!  Except none of ad guys wants to be numbers 17 18 and 19.  Many cases, they will run away. 

The same COULD apply to AK wielding terrists at the mall.  2 shots from a snubbie and they start to wonder, "yeah, that guy has just snubbie, but this is a big mall and who knows how many more guys like him there are... Better withdrawal, regroup, and rethink this."

Ok, no really support yet for high capacity magazines yet.

Now for the really dark scenarios.  You are against a group of unarmed hoodlums (let's dispense with the mall terrists at this point, you're gonna have to be lucky AND a good shot, AND fleet of foot against that kind of evil doers...) and the unarmed hoodlums aren't dissuaded by the surprise presesence of a pistol in your hand, aren't detterred by the VERY loud bangs of a round or two, and they don't care that one of their group just had his gray matter introduced

This is the meat of the high cap argument.  THis is the snubbie carrier's Kobiashi Maru, the supposedly unwinnable scenario.  This is where T-Bolt thinks, "Man I wish I had Glock 17, instead, right now."  And the high cap people win the argument and everyone get's a double stack carry piece, right?

Not necessarily.  The scenarios can ALL be ratcheted up.  You can add more adversaries to the mix so that the Glock guy with 55 9mm rounds ready to go says, "Gee, I really wish I had my AR, and a buncha friends with ARs, today, and a few hunder 30 round mags.  This is a hairy situation!"

The only REAL histoical scenario where the high cap mag is vital is the unarmed flash mob assault.  And those aren't prevalent as yet.  It's up there with "killed by meteor" chances.  Some might armor their roof.  My risk assessment is...  The advanatage a high cap 9mm gives me is not so big a jump as to justify the extra hassle and inconvenience. 

With those 18+1 and 2 spare magazines...  Your gunfight will be over before you get one quarter of the way through that first magazine in non meteor hitting your head probability cases.

When carrying a semi...  it is worth the hassle and inconvenience, to me, to have a spare magazine because of the point of failure inherent in a single magazine.  But those 2 magazines could carry 5 rounds, for all I care. 

If a gun fight comes to me, I hope to have the biggest quantum leap in requirements.  A gun.  "The important thing about a gunfight is to have a gun."  That improvement from nothing to something is a much bigger jump than 5 rounds to 55 rounds.  That gun, nowadays, is a 5 round snubbie.  One day will be a 8 round 1911.  Even that 5 rounder is rare, of course, because of my state of residence.  But that's an old familiar story round here.


[Update:
Ooops.  Tam summed up my post much more succinctly in a comment:

"GENERALIZED RANT TO THE ENTIRE GUNTERNET:


Here’s a secret: .38 Spl +P 158gr LSWCHP will reliably expand to .6″ and shoot purt near clean through a man no matter which angle you shoot him from. Anything beyond that is just whistling past the graveyard.


I carry a 1911 because it works, and because I shoot it the best. I carry it in .45 because that’s the caliber that is most reliable in the gun.


Caliber itself is bullshit. Capacity is bullshit. All this “mine holds 18″ rounds stuff is just as much pointless wanking as the “Europellet” nonsense and you all know it as well as I do. This isn’t Mogadishu, and if it were, I’d be carrying a fucking carbine anyway.


Carry a gun that works. Carry the gun you trust and that you shoot best. Period fucking dot.
Jesus. Wept. But I have so lost all my tolerance for the silly gun forum/gun shoppe counter “Glunk” and “Europellet” and so forth pointless chest-beating about make, model, and caliber… Shouldn’t you people be off training someplace?"

I'm carrying the set up that doesn't pull my pants down.  With the pistol I reliably hit stuff with.  With a single set of reloads for the just in case factor. When the Wildings or Zombies get prevalent I'm carrying the M14 and bringing friends.  If my JOB becomes chasing bad guys, that snubbie I'd prefer to carry might be innappropriate.  Until then.]

[Update 2:  No one ever says. "All I had was the one mag of for my 1911, and it wasn't enough" outside a battlefield, have you noticed?  Cops run out of revolver bullets, and 9mm, but never complain that they didn't have enough for the 1911.  Is it because the 1911 cops panic less and miss less because they train more?]

[Update 3:  From here, "If you carry, be prepared to shoot. Some folks carry around a pistol like a talisman to ward off evil. They figure if they ever need to draw, they will not need to shoot. That thinking may get you killed. You might NOT have to shoot, which is fine, but don’t assume that to be the default."  Oh, it is most definitely not a talisman.]

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree for the most part. Carry something, anything. My daily carry is a small frame .357. Simple and reliable.

But I still own and a Glock 17 and ten 19 round mags. I still own an AR-10 and a ton of ammo.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

If the time ever comes when you need one it will be too late to buy one.

Marty said...

I carry a small frame 1911. Sometimes extra mags if my cloths allow. Six +1 rounds of .45acp.

Mostly, I hate reloading at the range. 17 or 33 round mags are damn handy!

Broken Andy said...

I started out carrying a 16+1 .40 with two spare mags. I'm down to a 15+1 9mm with 1 spare mag. And there is probably some point where I'll only be pocketting a .22mag Derringer. It's a mental journey everybody must make.

abnormalist said...

@Andy
I started with a 12+1 45ACP with a spare mag. 25 rounds of 230 grain JHP. I ended up going to a 6+1 380ACP for concealment, with a spare mag in the car.

That is until I got in a confrontation with an aggressive guy who was drunk, around 6'6" and probably 350+lbs. I didn't have to draw, but I kept thinking to myself "Why oh why did I bring the 380... why didn't I at least bring a second mag"

Since then the big 45 comes around with me more, and the 380 is a "Deep cover" only gun, and always with its reload.

Will it do me any more good? I really have no idea, but it makes me feel a lot better, so that comfort and confidence is worth something to me.

Bubblehead Les. said...

(Rolling up his Sleeves), Sigh! All valid points. But Tam's Post is 2 years old. She has recently talked about her new carry Gun, a Smith and Wesson M+P (with the Apex Trigger mod, similar to what Keads had in WV, BTW), and OMG it's a HICAP! Wonder why she shifted?

As to the Flash Mobs/Terrorist Attacks/etc.; I go with what I see on the news, and I have seen too many Security Camera Feeds lately where there are 2/3/4 Goblins with Guns robbing places like the Gas Station, Connivence Store, etc. Unfortunately, I don't get to Pick and Choose how and when I might need to pull a Gun, or else I wouldn't need a Gun at all, because I wouldn't be there in the First Place.

As to pulling down the pants: A Baby Glock that come in at 24-25 ounces loaded is so much more heavier than a Steel J-Frame that comes in at 23 ounces loaded (20.5 ounces for the gun, 2.7 ounces for 5 158 grain SJHP=23.2 ounces) HOW? Granted, I like that chart that compares the various Bullets in Ballistic Gel, but that also shows that, Apples to Apples, it really doesn't matter what Pistol Caliber one uses (until the .44 Magnum Range is reached), so why be wedded to only 5 shots, plus a Speed loader?

I could go on, but the kicker for me, having shot at one person in the real Civilian World, was the fact, under the Legal Constraints at that time and place, have 10 rounds of .22LR in a Ruger 10/22 was much more comforting when the Ballon Went Up than a Single Shot 12 Gauge, which was my only other Legal Option. I figured that if 10 rounds wasn't enough, I could always beat on the Goblin with the Rifle.

You want to carry a J-Frame, Great! You want to Carry a Commander, Great! You want to carry a Glock, Great! You want to carry a Kahr in .40 S+W, Great! But right now, with the Ammo Prices being the way they are, for Pistols, 9mm is cheaper than
.380, .38 Special, .357 Magnum, .40 S+W and .45 ACP (at least in my neck of the woods), and that, in turn, enables more Practice on the Range for the same amount of Cash. This, in turn, Young Padwan, allows one to increase the chance of hitting the Goblin if, God Forbid, you do ever have to shoot someone.

Of course, Range Time with a Ruger 22/45 does help a lot, but one does need to practice with the Self-Defense Pistol one chooses to carry.

A lot of Practice. Tons of practice. More practice than one can probably afford, both in time and money, usually. But hey, it's Shooting Guns, Bro! Just thank God we live in a Country where we can still Shoot Guns for Fun and Pleasure!

Your Turn.

P.S.: Ever stop and think that a 1911, with 8 rounds on tap (7+1), is a "HiCap" compared to a 5 Shot J-Frame?

Anonymous said...

I say it's better to be prepared for anything. I'll keep my Beretta 92fs IWB and if I need 15 instead of 5 rounds I will have it. If it takes more than two mags to get to the AR in the trunk of my car the shit is gonna be real deep. --Mark S.

LibertyNews said...

Mark Knapp has a good post related to this:

http://firearmslawyer.net/blog/index.php/b/2011/11/28/title_2

There is a recent FBI report that says that criminals are alot less fearful of citizens with guns than they used to be. He makes a good argument for carrying more ammo.

I also recently read a report (I forget where) that examined a number of shootings and determined that shot placement was the most important factor -- not caliber. So carry what you can shoot well.

Anonymous said...

The only valid point here is something is better than nothing. All the rest is noise at best. Sounds like you are trying to justify your carry choice. I will never regret having too much ammo.

New Jovian Thunderbolt said...

I regret having too much ammo nearly 100% of the time. I hate hitching up my pants. And I fall into water over my head much more often than I need to shoot dudes.

Baker said...

Following your logic why carry a gun at all? Odds are you will never need it.

If I ever need to open a can of whoop ass that I have stashed under my shirt, I want it to be as lethal as possible.

New Jovian Thunderbolt said...

I was responding to anon. But the first part of his comment was "The only valid point here is something is better than nothing. All the rest is noise at best. "

New Jovian Thunderbolt said...

And it is lethal. Is gun.

Anonymous said...

For me the magic number is 12 rounds. That gives me 3 shots on 3 bad guys and 3 misses. It is arbitrary, but it is what it is.

Pistols suck and there is a better than likely chance it will take more than 2 rounds to stop an attacker. Which means with a 5 shot snubby you have to rely on "he will run away" as part of your defensive plans.

On the flip side I don't always carry a second mag. There are 2 reason you may need a 2nd magazine.

1) you are out of bullets. You have already made the argument that wont likely happen and feel confident eough that you bet your life on it with your carry choice.

2) you have a mag related malfuction. The frequency that I have magazine related malfunctions is low and when i do i replace the magazine. Multiply that by the odds that I will need my gun and in those next 16 rounds I will have the 1st malfunction with that magazine and you have really long odds.

But here is the real reason to carry a hi-cap... You shoot it better. They typically have a grip large enough to get your hand on. They have real sights. People actually practice with them.

You don't carry a gun to carry it, you carry it to shoot it and that is what it should be good at.

Angus McThag said...

All other things being equal, more is better than less.

All other things are never equal, so it pretty much boils down to preference.

My choice of a 1911 for carry has a lot more to do with intimate familiarity with the gun than a belief that .45 is REALLY a lot better than 9mm.

I carry so that can defend myself, but I know how my luck runs. I will be shot in the back without ever knowing I was being stalked and will never even draw. Or I will draw too late worrying about the legal consequences.

Keads said...

What you posted is a very good mental exercise, but I default to a simple rule that has been said many times in many ways.

Carry something. Carry something you can shoot well and can carry with a degree of comfort.

Personally, I have carried a Colt Commander(one mag only), a Colt Detective Special .38 (with one speed loader), a *cough cough* Kel-Tek P3-AT (not any more), a S&W Bodyguard .380, and right now a S&W M&P 9mm.

My two go to guns are the last ones right now.

New Jovian Thunderbolt said...

Oh, before I forget. Interesting comments Bubblehead Les, and I sort of wrote this with you and mind. I knew of your preparations and thoughts concerning flash mob events that go all wrong. I also remembered that you carry a Baby Browning on more than a few occasions in the non summer months. I think of this and think "dang, he has one more round than me available in HIS gun"

Tam said...

Talk to the guy in... was it Georgia? ...recently who ran his Glock 36 to slidelock in a home invader. 230gr Gold Dots. Some folks take a lot of killing. Good thing he didn't bring a friend.

Is a 5-shot snubby enough? Probably.

But if you could magically carry more than 5 shots in the same size gun, why wouldn't you?

If we were basing this on "probabilities" we could all just leave our guns at home, since it's a 99.99% probability that you will never, ever need it.

I've changed my mind on the capacity thing. If I could carry mor bullets with less weight, why wouldn't I? Why was I still carrying my $2000+ custom 1911? As a tool, or to make a statement? Did I own the gun, or did the gun own me?

More important than all this endless agonizing over hardware, however, is how's your pistol shooting coming along? Can you reliably hit what you are aiming at with your CCW gun on demand? Have you taken any classes yet?

dustydog said...

The first reason for high capacity is so that I can miss a few times and take a mulligan.

The second reason for high capacity is a single but very determined assailant trying to kill me. If shooting him 5 times with 9 mm isn't enough, I will very much wish to keep shooting him. The idea of a team of killers that keep coming as 5 of their friends get dropped is fantasy, but the idea of a single guy coming despite getting shot 5 times is very real.

Broken Andy said...

So, not one but two dudes who can swallow 1380 grains of lead and keep coming? I'm reminded of the story of the guy who use to smuggle a bomb on planes, because what would be the odds of two bombs on the same plane!

Isn't the persistent assailant the purpose of the Mozambique drill? You keep hitting the guy's lucky bible in his chest pocket, so you go for the less biblically protected grey matter.

Tam said...

Andy,

It's cool that you can bat 1.000. I know I won't. I'd like to, but statistics say otherwise.

In a recent NYPD study, the most common number of assailants was "2", with "1" and "3" tied for second. Tom Givens, who is pretty clued in on this stuff ditched his 1911 recently for a Glock 34, with the comment that, under ideal real-world circumstances, the 1911 was a "two guy". IOW, giving you a couple hits and a couple misses per dude, (and hope those hits are good ones.) People shrug off piss-weak .45ACP all the time, just like they do piss-weak 9mm.

Thinking about it, that makes a J-frame a, what? One-and-a-half guy gun?

And I say this as someone with a J-frame in her coat pocket.

Will it probably be enough? Probably. Hell, based on my own experiences, just showing them the gun will probably be enough.

Then again, you probably won't even need the gun. I mean, day after day, thousands of them in a row, goes by without me having to use it. I haven't had to throw down on a human being in fifteen years, so I could probably just leave the gun at home.

What level of probably makes you comfortable?

Broken Andy said...

Tam,

In those studies about the odds of multiple attackers, when there were 2 or 3 did it state anywhere what #2 or #3 did after #1 started losing fluids? The round accounting per assailant may be overthinking for something that may never come, whereas the constant need to pull your pants up might be the everyday annoyance that makes one give up carriage.

No disrespect. Just putting that out there.

New Jovian Thunderbolt said...

And the gun/s to hand for me when addressing home invaders is different the the gun to hand when confronted with a situation in a Virginia Wal Mart.

Tam said...

"In those studies about the odds of multiple attackers, when there were 2 or 3 did it state anywhere what #2 or #3 did after #1 started losing fluids? The round accounting per assailant may be overthinking for something that may never come, whereas the constant need to pull your pants up might be the everyday annoyance that makes one give up carriage."

Again, we're back to playing the odds. If you're comfortable planning on Guy #2 running off if Guy #1 gets shot up, then a J-frame and no reload is obviously fine.

Heck, statistically speaking, you don't even need live ammo in the gun, since odds are good they'll flee at the sight of it.

Me, I've been carrying a full-size service pistol IWB from get-dressed 'til go-to-bed every day for almost ten years now. (Before that, I off-and-on carried a midsize pistol OWB...) It's no problem and doesn't bother me. In fact, the lighter plastic 17-shooter is even more comfortable than steel 8-shooter it replaced.

To each, their own.