Monday, April 13, 2020

We humans

Are just awful at judging risk and probabilities. 


McChuck said...

#1 Son told us yesterday that he has the plague. He moved to the People's Democratic Republic of Maryland last month, and started back to work two weeks ago.

He's talked to a doctor by phone, as the offices are closed to all but the critically ill. Doctor told him he probably had the beer disease, but he wasn't sick enough to be tested. There simply aren't enough testing kits to go around. So much for accurate reporting statistics.

He's a young man. He'll be fine. He told us that this was nothing compared to the flu he had four years ago.

ASM826 said...

If humans were better at probability and statistics, there would be no lotteries.