Thursday, March 18, 2021

Pandemic -100

The graph for infections and deaths in this pandemic is remarkable parallel to the one in 1918

First noticed in January, then initial surge, quieter summer, much bigger spike in the late Fall, then another regular size Spring.

Differences.  Back then public fear and gov't underreaction 100 years ago lead to shut downs.  We didn't have the same kind of war censorship today we had then.  Totally different kind of censorship now.  And different age cohorts were harder hit.  Not as many crowded draftee army bases, troop ships, and trenches nowadays.

Oh and there is more of a vaccine rollout now than then.  That'll make the comparative spring graphs diverge.  So watch Europe.  Worse vaccine rollout there, so it will look more like 1918 there.

But the graphs, no matter how an area reacted to the outbreak, the humps came when the humps came. Some crowds made for superspreader events, other indistinguishable crowds did not. Just a huge feeling of inexorable inevitiblity.


Grey said...

It's a virus. It will continue to spread until everybody has antibodies.

The best that can be hoped for is to slow the spread, but this can only be done at terrible cost.

Barring vaccination, those who would be infected will be infected, and those who would die will die.

All men die.

Jonathan H said...

This shows that medical people don't know as much as they think they do.

They can't explain using science why there is spread some places no mater the precautions and no spread elsewhere despite limited (or no) precautions.