Wednesday, June 24, 2020


Ok, we know Roberts specifically, and the Supreme Court in general, dislike a split circuit.

Except, where Roberts sits, when it comes to guns rights cases that have a decent chance of passing a majority, resolving the split in the good guys' favor and not as Roberts prefers. 

Let's assume that Roberts absolutely loaths gun rights.  Because that is probably a fact.

And he was instrumental in denying cert to 10 gun rights cases, where more than half of those resolved a split circuit problem one way or another. 

He wants to wait out Trump.  Maybe he'll be alright in less than a year, if Trump loses.  THe Chief Justice gets some breathing room and can continue he anti-gun shenanigans when the exhausted Ginsburg can retire and replaced with a Biden pick. 

But there is a chance Trump wins.  And Cocaine Mitch holds the Senate.  What does Roberts do then?  I don't think Ginsberg can hold out for five more, is Roberts hoping she can?  If Trump can name one or more FURTHER replacement, what does Roberts do?  Trump has already been disappointed by Gorsuch, so Roberts has much less of a chance of yet another stealth Liberal getting the nom.   Does Roberts break and just acquiesce do the little people retaining their rights despite his personal preference?

But yeah, SCOTUS can ignore a split circuit if it wants to.  Sure. 

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